18%

of the way to the future Machines of Loving Grace describes.

Dario Amodei's 2024 essay made 18 predictions about what powerful AI could do for health, the mind, poverty and democracy. This page scores each one against the news, every week.

Average of all 18 scores. Updated October 18, 2026.

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Each prediction, scored 0 to 100Average 18.1

Infectious Disease Prevention: 33

Cancer Treatment: 20

Genetic Disease: 30

Alzheimer's Prevention: 15

Biological Freedom: 25

Lifespan Extension: 10

Mental Illness Treatment: 20

Structural Conditions: 10

Genetic Prevention: 15

Everyday Enhancement: 30

Health Distribution: 10

Economic Growth: 5

Food Security: 15

Climate Change: 20

Democratic Advantage: 23

Information Environment: 15

Legal Systems: 10

Government Services: 20

Hover or tab to a bar to see which prediction it is.

All 18 predictions

Grouped the way the essay groups them. A score is the tracker's judgment of how far the world has moved toward that prediction, not a measurement.

Biology and physical health

22%average

Timeline: 5-10 years after powerful AI development to achieve '50-100 years of progress'

Infectious Disease Prevention33%
Reliable prevention and treatment of nearly all natural infectious disease
Pennsylvania officials report state's third death involving measles, Sep 14, 2026
Cancer Treatment20%
95%+ reduction in cancer mortality and incidence
Genetic Disease30%
Prevention and cures for most genetic diseases through improved screening and CRISPR advances
Alzheimer's Prevention15%
Understanding and prevention of Alzheimer's disease
Biological Freedom25%
Enhanced control over weight, appearance, reproduction, and other biological processes
Lifespan Extension10%
Doubling of human lifespan to ~150 years

Neuroscience and mental health

19%average

Accelerated progress in understanding and treating mental health conditions

Mental Illness Treatment20%
Effective treatments for most mental illnesses including PTSD, depression, schizophrenia
Structural Conditions10%
Solutions for 'structural' conditions like psychopathy and some forms of autism
Genetic Prevention15%
Genetic screening to prevent mental illness while preserving positive traits
Everyday Enhancement30%
Solutions for common issues like focus, mood, and anxiety management

Economic development and poverty

13%average

Rapid economic growth and reduction in global inequality

Health Distribution10%
50% of AI-driven health benefits reaching poorest countries
Economic Growth5%
20% annual GDP growth in developing world
Food Security15%
Second Green Revolution through AI-driven agricultural advances
Climate Change20%
Major advances in carbon removal and clean energy technology

Peace and governance

17%average

AI's impact on democracy, peace, and governance

Democratic Advantage23%
Democratic coalition gaining clear advantage in AI capabilities
Trump's mass firing just dealt another blow to American science, May 1, 2026
Information Environment15%
Creation of globally free information environment
Legal Systems10%
AI improving impartiality and fairness in legal systems
Government Services20%
Enhanced provision and accessibility of government services

How a score moves

Every Monday a script reads the week's science, health and policy news and asks an AI model to check it against strict rules. Code enforces the limits, and every change is logged with its source.

Latest check

October 19, 2026

This week's articles included several stories that came close but did not meet the bar for changing a score. The most AI-relevant was research using AI to design proteins that cut up other proteins.

No score changed this week.

Every past check, with sources

The rules

Up only with AI and proofAI played a direct, named part, and the evidence is peer-reviewed, a regulator's decision, official data, or something already in use.
Down on the same kind of proofAn official statistic worsening, a policy reversal, or a documented failure, whether or not AI was involved.
Never countedAnnouncements, funding rounds, animal studies, opinion pieces and predictions.
Small stepsAt most 3 points per change, one change per prediction per week, and each article counts once.